These aberrations have even made some experts, like those at Baseball Prospectus; declare "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect". BP and others have deduced that the regular stats don't necessarily show how good or bad a pitcher is.
Hopefully in this article I can make my case for new statistical observations, and how to include them in your games, which will help you get noticed by pro and college scouts.
A History Lesson
Not too long ago, there was a man named Voros McCracken. Voros worked at a Chicago Law Firm, where he did not like his job. So, like most baseball junkies, he spent his time following baseball and checking the stats. A question that plagued him was how to separate pitching stats from defensive stats, because at the time, they were seemingly intertwined.
This problem gave birth to McCracken's new idea, DIPS, otherwise known as Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics. These are pitching statistics that only account for the pitcher. This is an extremely important type of statistic, simply because it is an objective analysis of what a pitcher does.
We will go in depth with DIPS right now.
DIPS - A New Way To Look At Pitchers
By now, you are probably wondering what these Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics are, and how expensive is the calculator needed to calculate them. Luckily, these stats are already present, and don't require fancy calculations.
Voros McCracken deduced that the pitcher only has so much control over what happens in the game. Mr. McCracken noticed that a pitcher could only control three things in a game: walks, strikeouts and home runs. He was able to separate these stats from the rest of the defense, simply because you can't field a strikeout, a walk or a home run. Everything else is defensive dependent.
This may take a few tries to register, but just think about it. If a hitter hits a little squibber down the third-base line, he might get on if he is a fast runner. If the defense happens to be in a drawn-in position (trying to prevent a run from scoring), they might not reach a sharply hit ball. There is also the possibility of an error.
Why punish the pitcher for the defense's mistakes?
This is part of the reason why pitchers' success usually varies over their career. Sometimes these pitchers get lucky for a season. Usually you can tell if there BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) is unusually low. A good example would be Esteban Loaiza of the New York Yankees (traded to them from the White Sox earlier in the year). Last year Esteban was lucky in that most of the balls put in play fell as outs, and consequently, the man won 21 games.
In this current season, Esteban's luck has partially run out, because with most of the season over with, he has nine wins, and a 5.52 ERA. Ouch.
Now you are probably wondering if a pitcher's performance is in any way predictable. Yes there is, and now we can plug in our DIPS statistics. If you look at the DIPS statistics, you will notice that a pitcher's strikeout, walk and home run totals do not vary much throughout a career. This is proven if you look at Randy Johnson's stats.
In every year when he is healthy, the man usually strikes out 200+ batters. He also consistently gives up a low number of walks and home runs every year. What does vary a lot, is his Earned Run Average. Some years he has a 2.00 ERA, and sometimes it fluctuates up to 4.5 ERA. ERA is largely tied into defense, because it takes into account the defense behind the pitcher.
Stats To Avoid Putting An Emphasis On
Now that we know which stats are good, lets talk about the stats we need to avoid putting an emphasis on. Wins immediately comes to mind. Wins are without a doubt, one of the crudest stats to measure pitchers by. It is inefficient to place a win solely on one player (unless you are talking about Bill James' Win Shares, which will be an upcoming article).
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A win can mean many things. What if the game was won by the starting pitcher, but the score was 16-15? Obviously you can't have a pitcher that gives up that many runs per game, or you would lose a lot more than you win.
What if the pitcher was given a loss, even though the defense made 4 errors, and they were playing in Coors Field (for those who don't know, Coors Field is in Denver, where the air is so thin that a preposterous amount of home runs are usually hit each game)?
Hopefully you are getting the sense that it is bad to judge pitchers on factors that usually have to deal with the defense and the nature of the stadium being played in.
How A Coach Can Use These Stats
A shrewd coach can use these statistical evaluation methods to win a lot of games. By paying attention to a pitcher's strikeout, walk and home run totals, you can effectively set up a good rotation, and know who to bring in late in the game.
The best pitchers are those who get outs and can can prevent people from getting on base. Obviously the more strikeouts a pitcher can get means fewer players getting on base, but more importantly, if they can control the strike zone and get into favorable pitching counts, they can positively affect the game without even getting the defense involved.
How A Player Can Use These Stats
This is harder for a pitcher to implement, simply because you are the one influencing the stats, not evaluating them.
I usually don't think it's a good idea to go on to the mound looking to get a certain number of strikeouts, or give up a certain number of walks, because that will negatively affect your pitching performance.
All I can really say to pitchers is that you should keep finding ways to strike out hitters, whether that be with a blistering fastball, or being able to control the strike zone and effectively set up your other pitches.
Bill James repeatedly stresses the importance of the strike zone, and hopefully you leave with this knowledge. It's been proven mathematically that most hitters become anemic 9th-hole hitters if you get them into pitcher's counts.
That concludes your lesson on DIPS.